Below is the latest official forecasted track from the National Hurricane Center. After the storm passes near eastern, NC, it will ride up the Mid-Atlantic Coast and will likely be within a zone between NYC and 60 miles east of there, making the greatest landfall threat in Nassau county on Long Island.
Below is the latest visible satellite image of the storm. This classifies as a large hurricane. Unfortunately, this is bad news for many reasons:
1) The aerial coverage of hurricane and tropical storm forced winds will extend hundreds of miles, affecting a large population area.
2) Large hurricanes weaken much slower than small hurricanes. So although, Irene will encounter cooler waters and southwesterly wind shear as it moves into New England, it may stay a hurricane well inland.
3) Since the storm is far-reaching, there is the potential for a greater storm surge, as it will have more time to pile up water near the coast. Making matters worse, we at a time of astrological higher tides.
Hurricane Irene will soon pass through a small stripe of warmer waters known as the gulf stream. This will give Irene an additional opportunity to strengthen back into a category 3 hurricane. Thereafter, gradual weakening should occur.
This is a dangerous hurricane, affecting a large population center. The impacts will be severe. One of the largest disruptions will likely be power, which in some cases could be out for weeks in some locations.
The next update for the National Hurricane Center will be within the hour.
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