Don't Let your Guard Down

Although Irene will not re-strenghten into a Category 3 Storm before hitting the coast of North Carolina and maximum sustained winds may not be quite as high across the tri-state area as orginally thought, this is still a very dangerous situation. Irene is very large and is going to have ample opportunity to pile up water in areas where storm surge is an issue. The thinking now is that the center will come ashore along the south shore of Long Island, in Nassau county. The highest winds will be just east of there. Wind gusts over 80 mph are quite possible at those locations. Although much of the tri-state may not have sustained winds at hurricane force, we do expect hurricane force gusts every so often and sustained winds will easily be tropical storm force. Keep in mind that the high winds will occur during a relatively long period of time, so we still anticipate that there will be quite a bit of wind damage, especially to trees. As you are probably aware, a number of mandatory evacuations were ordered. Please follow them. They are for your own safety. The weather will start going down hill Saturday evening. Expect the worst conditions late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. As Irene begins to pick up more speed, conditions should rapidly improve Sunday night. The good news is the weather looks marvelous next week... just in time for the start of the U.S. Open tennis tournament.

Hurricane Irene's Impacts to be long-lasting

Hurricane Irene is currently about 350 miles outh of Cape Hatteras, NC and is forecasted to pass either directly over the Outer Banks of NC or just inland. It is moving north at 14 MPH. It currently has maximum sustained winds of 110 MPH, making it a strong category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Below is the latest official forecasted track from the National Hurricane Center. After the storm passes near eastern, NC, it will ride up the Mid-Atlantic Coast and will likely be within a zone between NYC and 60 miles east of there, making the greatest landfall threat in Nassau county on Long Island. Below is the latest visible satellite image of the storm. This classifies as a large hurricane. Unfortunately, this is bad news for many reasons:

1) The aerial coverage of hurricane and tropical storm forced winds will extend hundreds of miles, affecting a large population area.

2) Large hurricanes weaken much slower than small hurricanes. So although, Irene will encounter cooler waters and southwesterly wind shear as it moves into New England, it may stay a hurricane well inland.

3) Since the storm is far-reaching, there is the potential for a greater storm surge, as it will have more time to pile up water near the coast. Making matters worse, we at a time of astrological higher tides.

Hurricane Irene will soon pass through a small stripe of warmer waters known as the gulf stream. This will give Irene an additional opportunity to strengthen back into a category 3 hurricane. Thereafter, gradual weakening should occur.

This is a dangerous hurricane, affecting a large population center. The impacts will be severe. One of the largest disruptions will likely be power, which in some cases could be out for weeks in some locations.

The next update for the National Hurricane Center will be within the hour.